On February 19, in an interview aired on CNN Brasil Money, Roberto Ardenghy, President of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP) and member of the Executive Committee of the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, shared his analysis on the recent rise in oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Ardenghy highlighted that the price of a barrel of oil has climbed above $70 per barrel, reversing declines seen in recent months, largely in response to geopolitical and military pressures around the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial maritime chokepoint through which approximately 24% of the world’s oil exports transit.

According to Ardenghy, the current market movement reflects geopolitical risk premiums driven by uncertainty in the region, rather than confirmed supply disruptions. He noted that no oil tanker would feel comfortable transiting the Strait in the event of an actual military conflict, which could create a pronounced sense of insecurity in the months ahead.

Despite these tensions, Ardenghy emphasized the significant amount of oil held in global inventories and pointed out that there are diverse sources of crude oil worldwide, which help mitigate the potential impact of localized supply risks. He stressed that the oil market is vast and highly liquid, and that trading contracts now factor in geopolitical risk when determining prices.

Ardenghy also warned of the broader implications of sustained price increases, explaining that oil provides roughly 40% of the world’s primary energy, meaning higher prices could have wide-ranging economic consequences. At the same time, he underscored that Brazil maintains a relatively strong energy security position and is not exposed to the same level of risk as some other countries.

Importantly, Ardenghy cautioned that current price movements are primarily speculative in nature. There is no certainty that oil prices will skyrocket, since there is no definitive indication that a U.S. military strike against Iran will occur. Rather, diplomatic engagement remains a key factor in shaping the outlook for energy markets in the near term.